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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a forecast indicating a 60% probability that La Niña conditions will develop from October 2024 through February 2025. This update underscores the dynamic nature of climate patterns and highlights the ongoing impact of human-induced global warming.

La Niña: A Cooling Influence

La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically alters global weather patterns. The WMO's latest forecast suggests a 55% chance of La Niña emerging from September to November 2024, with that probability rising to 60% for the subsequent months. This is in stark contrast to the low likelihood of an El Niño event, which is currently deemed negligible.

While La Niña tends to counteract some of the warming effects of El Niño, its impact is relatively short-term. The cooling effect of La Niña is not expected to override the longer-term trend of rising global temperatures driven by greenhouse gas emissions. "Even if La Niña does develop, it will not alter the persistent upward trajectory of global temperatures," stated WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

Current Climate Context

The past decade has been marked by record-breaking warmth, even during the period of a multi-year La Niña event that lasted from 2020 to early 2023. The most recent El Niño event, one of the strongest on record, began in mid-2023 and peaked between November 2023 and January 2024 before subsiding.

Despite the return to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the past few months, extreme weather events have continued unabated. “Neutral conditions do not prevent extreme weather; indeed, we’ve seen significant heat and heavy rainfall. This reinforces the importance of early warnings and accurate seasonal forecasts,” Saulo added.

Global Implications and Forecasts

The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) provides a broader view of anticipated climate trends. The GSCU forecasts that above-normal sea-surface temperatures will persist in most ocean basins, except the eastern Pacific, aligning with the predicted La Niña conditions. Consequently, above-normal temperatures are expected across nearly all land areas.

Rainfall patterns are also expected to shift, with projections indicating increased precipitation in parts of northern South America, Central America, the Caribbean, the Greater Horn of Africa, and parts of Southeast Asia. These patterns are typical of the early stages of La Niña, though variations may occur based on intensity and other climate drivers.

Image Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)