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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the weak La Niña event, which emerged in December 2024, is likely to be short-lived. The WMO's latest update suggests that cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to normal conditions by mid-2025.

Forecasts Predict Transition to Neutral Conditions

The WMO's Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction have forecast a 60% probability that the current La Niña conditions will shift to ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during the March to May 2025 period. The likelihood of this transition increases to 70% for the April to June 2025 timeframe. The probability of an El Niño event developing in the same period is negligible, according to the WMO.

However, the WMO noted higher-than-usual uncertainty in the long-term forecasts due to the "boreal spring predictability barrier," a well-recognized challenge in predicting the onset of El Niño or La Niña events with precision.

Economic and Climate Impacts of La Niña

La Niña events are characterized by large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to significant changes in weather patterns such as altered winds, pressure systems, and rainfall distribution. These shifts often bring impacts opposite to those of El Niño, particularly in tropical regions.

While the weak La Niña event has had minimal climate impacts to date, it has occurred within the broader context of human-induced climate change. According to the WMO, this ongoing trend is driving increased global temperatures, more extreme weather events, and shifts in seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns. Notably, January 2025 marked the warmest January on record, even with the presence of weak La Niña conditions.

Image Source: WMO