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Global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, according to a new climate update released by the World Meteorological Organization. The report projects that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 could become hotter than 2024, currently the warmest year on record.

The study, produced by the UK’s Met Office in collaboration with international climate centres, estimates an 86% chance that one of the next five years will set a new global temperature record.

Annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are forecast to remain between 1.3 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

Rising Risk Of Crossing Climate Thresholds

The report states there is a 91% chance that global temperatures will temporarily exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming level in at least one year before 2030. Scientists noted that the world already briefly crossed that threshold in 2024.

However, researchers clarified that temporary yearly breaches do not mean the long-term temperature target under the Paris Agreement has permanently failed. The agreement measures warming trends over decades rather than individual years.

Climate experts also said there is a 75% probability that the average warming across the entire 2026-2030 period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.