The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has launched its first specialized El Niño bulletin for maritime stakeholders, warning that the developing climate phenomenon could affect marine ecosystems, fisheries, coastal regions, and ocean-based industries across India through 2027.

The advisory was released on June 22 by Konda Vishweshwar Reddy during an event at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services. The bulletin is designed to provide sector-specific information for maritime operators as El Niño conditions continue to strengthen.

El Niño Expected To Peak During Winter 2026-27

According to INCOIS, the ongoing El Niño event is expected to intensify and reach its peak between November 2026 and January 2027. The agency forecasts above-normal sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean until April or May 2027.

Scientists say the northern Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, could experience significant thermal stress in the coming months. The highest impacts are expected during March-May 2027, when warmer ocean conditions may increase the likelihood of marine heat waves and coral bleaching events.

Fisheries And Marine Ecosystems Face Challenges

The bulletin highlights potential risks to fisheries, particularly sardine and mackerel stocks. Warmer ocean conditions may alter fish migration patterns, reduce recruitment rates, and affect growth, potentially leading to lower catches and smaller fish sizes.

Marine scientists have long identified El Niño as a factor that can influence ocean productivity and ecosystem health, especially in tropical waters where temperature changes can disrupt food chains and habitat conditions.

Different Impacts For India's East And West Coasts

INCOIS forecasts rougher sea conditions in the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon season, increasing the risk of coastal erosion and flooding along India's east coast.

In contrast, the Arabian Sea and west coast are expected to experience relatively calmer sea conditions. This could create longer operational windows for shipping, fishing, offshore energy, and other marine activities while reducing the risk of coastal inundation and erosion.

INCOIS has advised maritime operators, coastal authorities, and fisheries stakeholders to closely monitor future alerts and advisories. The next specialized El Niño bulletin is scheduled for release in the second week of July 2026.