Source::Pexels

The number of people facing severe food insecurity worldwide could exceed one billion by 2028 if current economic and conflict-related pressures continue, according to the World Food Security Outlook, April 2026. The updated assessment revises the 2030 global estimate upward by 46 million people compared with the October 2025 outlook, reflecting the impact of renewed conflict in the Middle East, rising energy prices, and weaker global economic growth.

Middle East Conflict Raises Global Food System Risks

The report links the deterioration in food security projections to the conflict that intensified in the Middle East in late February 2026. Brent crude oil prices climbed to US$112 per barrel by late March, around 60% higher than before the escalation, while European natural gas prices increased by nearly 70%.

Higher energy costs have increased expenses across food supply chains, including fertilizer production, transportation, food imports, and public services. The effects are expected to be strongest in low-income countries that depend heavily on imported food and fuel. The International Monetary Fund's April 2026 World Economic Outlook also projects slower global growth and higher inflation, increasing pressure on vulnerable economies.

Africa And Low-Income Countries Face The Greatest Burden

The Outlook estimates that 927 million people experienced severe food insecurity in 2023, with a preliminary estimate of 993 million for 2025. Under the baseline scenario, the figure is projected to reach approximately 1.05 billion by 2030. If energy market disruptions continue for longer than expected, the one-billion threshold could be crossed as early as 2026.

By 2030, about 82% of the world's severely food-insecure population is expected to live in low-income and lower-middle-income economies. Sub-Saharan Africa alone could account for roughly 400 million people, representing nearly 38% of the global total.

 Global severely food-insecure population, 1999–2031 (millions) Source::World Food Security Outlook 2026