India’s forests could store nearly twice as much carbon by 2100 under current greenhouse gas emission trends, according to a new study published on April 20 in Environmental Research: Climate. The findings offer a detailed projection of how climate change may reshape forest ecosystems across the country.

The research, conducted by scientists from multiple Indian institutions, uses advanced modelling to estimate future vegetation carbon stocks. It suggests that rising carbon dioxide levels and changing climate conditions may increase plant growth in several regions.

Desert and Semi-Arid Regions Show Strong Growth Potential

The study highlights that the largest increases in vegetation carbon are expected in desert and semi-arid regions, particularly in Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh. These areas, typically known for sparse vegetation, may see improved plant growth due to higher atmospheric carbon dioxide and shifts in rainfall patterns.

Researchers indicate that such changes could significantly alter regional ecosystems and carbon absorption capacity. However, the extent of growth will depend on local climate conditions and land management practices.

Findings Differ From Official Forest Data

The study’s projections differ from estimates published by the Forest Survey of India, which tracks forest and tree cover nationwide. While FSI data is based on current observations and satellite assessments, the new research focuses on long-term climate-driven scenarios.

This contrast highlights the uncertainty in predicting future forest carbon storage and the importance of combining observational data with modelling approaches.

Implications for Climate Policy and Carbon Goals

India’s forests play a key role in absorbing carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas. Increased carbon storage could support climate mitigation efforts, but experts caution that outcomes depend on emission pathways, conservation policies, and ecological limits.

The study underscores the need for continued monitoring and evidence-based planning as climate conditions evolve.