The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about higher temperatures and shifting weather patterns across many parts of the world in the coming months.

According to the latest WMO El Niño/La Niña Update released on June 2, there is an 80% probability that El Niño will emerge during June-August 2026. Forecasts indicate a more than 90% chance that the event will continue through at least November. Climate models suggest the phenomenon is likely to reach moderate or possibly strong intensity.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern linked to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. Although it forms far from many populated regions, its effects can influence weather, agriculture, water supplies, energy demand, and public health across the globe.

Rising Temperatures Could Affect Millions

WMO's seasonal outlook projects above-average temperatures across most regions of the world during June, July, and August. Scientists say this could increase the likelihood of heatwaves, drought conditions, and heat-related health risks.

Recent monitoring shows unusually warm subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific, with temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius above average in some areas. This stored heat is helping fuel the development of El Niño conditions.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said early warnings and seasonal forecasts are essential tools for helping governments and communities prepare for potential impacts.

Changes In Rainfall Patterns Expected

Historically, El Niño has been associated with wetter conditions in parts of southern South America, the southern US, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. At the same time, drier conditions often develop across Australia, Indonesia, Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of South Asia.

Regional climate outlooks suggest below-average rainfall may affect parts of the Greater Horn of Africa and South Asia during critical agricultural seasons.

Why Preparedness Matters

Experts emphasize that no two El Niño events are identical. However, even moderate events can increase the risk of weather extremes. Governments, farmers, businesses, and emergency agencies are using seasonal forecasts to prepare for potential disruptions.

As global temperatures remain near record highs, scientists say monitoring El Niño's development will be important for protecting lives, livelihoods, and economies worldwide.