According to the latest long-range forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department, southwest monsoon of 2026 is likely to be below normal in India. The early projection, released in April, offers key insights into rainfall trends, climate patterns, and possible effects on agriculture and the economy.

Below-Normal Rainfall Likely Across India

The forecast indicates that seasonal rainfall during June to September is expected to be around 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a margin of error of ±5%. The LPA, calculated for 1971–2020, stands at 87 cm.

Data shows a higher probability of rainfall falling in the “below normal” (90–95%) and “deficient” (<90%) categories. Combined, these categories have a significantly higher likelihood compared to historical averages. In contrast, chances of “above normal” or “excess” rainfall remain low.

Regionally, many parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall. However, some areas in northeast, northwest, and southern peninsular India may experience normal to above-normal rainfall.

Climate Patterns Point to Changing Ocean Conditions

The forecast is based on a combination of statistical and dynamical models, including the Multi-Model Ensemble system. Current ocean conditions show a transition from weak La Niña-like patterns to neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

Climate models suggest that El Niño conditions may develop during the monsoon season, which is often associated with weaker rainfall in India. At the same time, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to emerge later in the season, which could partially influence rainfall distribution.

Advanced Forecasting System Improves Accuracy

IMD follows a two-stage forecasting system, with updates issued in April and May, followed by monthly forecasts. The system integrates global climate models and India’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System to improve prediction accuracy.

The department also monitors factors such as sea surface temperatures and northern hemisphere snow cover, both of which influence monsoon behavior.

The next update to the forecast is expected by the end of May 2026.