Typhoon Dolphin delivered record rainfall across eastern, central and northern China after making landfall on Aug. 10, 2026. Its 16-day track from the central Pacific and its unusually broad circulation allowed the storm to carry deep tropical moisture far inland. Scientists say El Nino and a warming climate likely influenced the environment around Dolphin, but they caution that no formal attribution study has yet quantified their exact contribution to this event.

Rainfall Records And Inland Impact

Thirteen weather stations across China recorded new single-day rainfall totals, according to Reuters reporting on Aug. 13.

From Aug. 7 to 11, Zhejiang recorded an average of 215 millimeters of rain, the highest total linked to a landfalling typhoon in the province. Taizhou, where Dolphin first came ashore near Yuhuan, received an average of 438 millimeters. As the storm moved inland, it continued to break rainfall records in Hubei and Henan.

In Beijing’s Changping district, 90.7 millimeters fell within one hour on Wednesday, the highest hourly total recorded there since 1954. Localized totals of more than 700 millimeters were reported in parts of Taizhou between Aug. 8 and the morning of Aug. 10. Shanghai recorded about 220 millimeters in one day, described as the second-wettest day in 150 years for the city.

Meteorologists say the storm weakened as a wind system after landfall, but its remnant circulation continued to transport moisture inland. This moisture interacted with regional weather patterns and topography to enhance rainfall far from the coast.

El Nino’s Role In The Storm’s Track

Dolphin formed near the International Date Line, about 6,000 kilometers east of Zhejiang. This was an unusually far-east origin point for a typhoon that later made landfall in China.

El Nino conditions were present in 2026 and were forecast to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter. During El Nino years, tropical cyclone formation in the northwest Pacific tends to shift eastward. This gives storms more time over warm ocean water before reaching East Asia.

Scientists say this can allow storms to organize and intensify for longer. However, they emphasize that El Nino is a natural climate pattern and does not alone determine a single storm’s track or intensity.

Climate Change And Moisture Capacity

Climate change did not create Dolphin, but it altered the background conditions. The IPCC estimates that the atmosphere’s water-holding capacity increases by about 7% for each 1 degree Celsius of warming. This provides a larger moisture reservoir when circulation patterns are favorable.

Scientists say this means a similar storm today can produce heavier rainfall than it would have in a cooler climate. Research also suggests that global ocean warming may be slowing the rate at which some storms decay over land. One study cited a roughly 45% decrease in post-landfall decay rates between 1967 and 2018, though this finding applies to specific datasets and basins.

Benjamin Horton of City University of Hong Kong said, “Many typhoons weaken quickly after landfall because they lose their oceanic heat source and encounter friction over land. Dolphin weakened as a wind storm, but its moisture plume and remnant circulation remained very effective at producing rainfall.”

The event highlights a continuing risk: a typhoon can remain dangerous even after its strongest winds decline.