Sources: Executive Office of Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis 

El Niño is strengthening rapidly across the tropical Pacific, with new forecasts pointing to a very strong event by the end of 2026. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the climate pattern is likely to persist through February 2027. Its effects could extend across temperatures, rainfall, agriculture, water resources and other climate-sensitive sectors.

The latest WMO outlook follows months of rapid warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. WMO says the event is now firmly established. Earlier forecasts also showed a steady rise in ocean temperatures and a high level of agreement among international forecasting systems.

Pacific Ocean Temperatures Rise Sharply

The Niño 3.4 region is a key measure used to monitor El Niño. WMO reported that its temperature anomaly had risen substantially during 2026. NOAA observations also show continued warming across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

The latest forecasts indicate further strengthening before the expected peak late in 2026. WMO puts the likelihood of El Niño continuing through February 2027 at nearly 100%. The agency expects the event to reach very strong intensity.

Global Heat And Rainfall Patterns Face Changes

The developing El Niño comes as global ocean and land temperatures remain exceptionally high. NOAA reported that August 2026 was the warmest August in its record, while global ocean temperatures also reached a record for the month.

Copernicus reported that August was the warmest month globally in its ERA5 record, tied with July 2023. Sea-surface temperatures across the extra-polar oceans also reached a record high for August.

WMO forecasts above-average temperatures across large parts of the world during October-December. Rainfall patterns are also expected to shift. Some regions face increased chances of wetter conditions, while others could experience drier-than-normal weather.

Evolution of Niño 3.4 anomalies from September 2026 initial conditions. The solid black line represents the observed evolution, transitioning into the ensemble mean forecasts from various seasonal prediction systems (coloured lines). All anomalies are in °C relative to the 1993–2009 baseline period. | Sources: WMO